BertTuyt wrote:
Rebooting of the system is not very helpful when you are doing calculations for days
Anyway, after some interrupts, now 4 moves proved as a loss.
23-18, 21-17, 24-20, 23-19
So with the already proved 22-18, 2 moves to go.
And on my other computer I already proved 22-17 as a loss.
So 1 move down only
Very strange that only 1 move is winning, think no-one sees a logical explanation for this (yet).
Maybe in a galaxy far far away......
In the beginning I also thought that black was winning, which I now understand.
Based upon games with random moves ordering, you might come to this wrong conclusion.
I'm also afraid, that we for ages we wont have a clue what the BT 10x10 outcome will be.
My educated guess would be a white win, but for unknown reasons.
Bert
Hi Bert,
I think I have a logical statistic explanation to propose.
Look at the statistics on symmetrics configuration:
1x1 NCW1= 388 NCL1= 306
2x2 NCW1= 56 410 NCL1= 33 269
3x3 NCW1= 2 699 916 NCL1= 1 255 259
4x4 NCW1= 56 865 877 NCL1= 20 714 313
5x5 NCW1= 613 334 701 NCL1= 177 227 198
6x6 NCW1= 3 751 257 816 NCL1= 893 491 452
7x7 NCW1= 14 036 633 965 NCL1= 2 910 252 528
8x8 NCW1= 34 000 336 726 NCL1= 6 522 909 535
You see clearly that NCW1/NCL1 grows regularly to reach more than 5 for 8x8. It is simply a confirmation of a basic fact: when the position looks equal the side to move has the best chance to win!
For a 8x8 position the side to move has really more than 80% chance of winning.
Based on this consideration I would claim without calculation that the starting position (a 12x12 position) is certainly a winning position (more than 80% chance of winning).
Let's go a little farther: after any of the 7 legal white moves from the starting position it is now black to move and the 7 positions looks again quite egal. That means that on average more than 80% of these positions are winning for black point if view.
As a conclusion you see we have to expect two things:
1) The starting position has very good chances to be a winning position
2) The number of winning moves in the starting position is probably very low
Is it still very strange for you to have only one winning move?
My guess is that it is also true for the 10x10 BT game!