Michel, you are right that with short time scales, the non draw rate increases.
But with normal tournament conditions, the programs who utilize all processing power will draw more and more.
I guess I could win against Bolt running the 100m, when his legs are tied, but under normal conditions , no way.
I recently tested to see if scan is still capable of losing.
To test this, i played against single-core scan, with scan only 1 minute per game.
To give dragon some advantage, i gave dragon 6 cores. Due to parallelism limits, it then has about 3 times the amount of search capability.
1-minute-1-core scan vs 1-minute-6-core dragon: -35+18=447 (from scan's perspective)
In this unfair match, scan is losing 7% (+-1.2%) of the games.
To test a bit further i gave dragon more time:
1-minute-1-core scan vs 50-minute-6-core dragon: -17+0=43 (from scan's perspective)
With dragon having about 150 times as much processing capacity, scan is losing 28% (+-7%) of the games.
This means there is some improvement still possible, at least at very fast games.